The Influence of Income and the Business Cycle on Birth Rates in Bulgaria, 2000-2016
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Academic Publishing UNWE (AP-UNWE)
Abstract
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In the last three decades the population of Bulgaria decreases, which poses a challenge for the country’s economic development. It is possible that the opposite relation – from economic to demographic processes – also exists. Our analysis show that in Bulgaria income and the business cycle on one hand and the birth rate, on the other, are correlated for the period 2000-2016. Regardless of the initial income level, birth rate falls when the economy is in a crisis and it goes up when the economy recovers. However long-term increase in the birth rate as a reaction to long-term growth is questionable, as total birth rate remains unchanged. Instead, increases in the income level shift the birth rate from lower to higher age groups.
Keywords
Birth rate, Business cycle, Income, Bulgaria, E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles, J1 - Demographic Economics