Structural Labour Market Crisis in Bulgaria: Demographic Decline, Labour Shortages and Macroeconomic Implications (2013 – 2025)

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cris.sourceIdoai:journals.unwe.bg:article/53
dc.creatorAngelov, Asenen
dc.date2025-12-18
dc.date.accessioned2026-09-24T23:08:34Z
dc.date.available2026-09-24T23:08:34Z
dc.descriptionThis article examines Bulgaria’s structural labour market crisis during the period 2013 – 2025, characterized by demographic decline, persistent labour shortages and weakening macroeconomic performance. Despite historically low unemployment rates of 3.6 – 4.2 percent in 2024 – 2025, the labour market operates under severe structural constraints driven by population ageing, shrinking labour force and regional depopulation. Using established theoretical models such as Okun’s law, NAIRU and the Phillips curve, combined with empirical data from UN DESA, Eurostat, NSI, BNB and the World Bank, the study demonstrates that Bulgaria’s low unemployment reflects labour market overheating rather than sustainable economic strength. Wage growth has consistently exceeded productivity, foreign direct investment has weakened, and the demographic contraction has sharply reduced the economy’s potential growth. The findings highlight deepening structural imbalances that restrict competitiveness and long-term development. The study concludes that comprehensive reforms in demographic, educational and regional policy are essential for restoring Bulgaria’s economic potential.en
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://rp.unwe.bg/index.php/rp/article/view/53
dc.identifier10.37075/RP.2025.5.01
dc.identifier.urihttps://ds.e-dnrs.org/handle/123456789/660
dc.languageen
dc.publisherAcademic Publishing UNWE (AP-UNWE)en
dc.relationhttps://rp.unwe.bg/index.php/rp/article/view/53/45
dc.rightsCopyright (c) 2025 Asen Angelov (Author)en
dc.rightshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en
dc.sourceResearch Papers of UNWE; No. 5 (2025); 11-24en
dc.subjectLabour marketen
dc.subjectDemographic declineen
dc.subjectLabour shortagesen
dc.subjectProductivityen
dc.subjectForeign investmenten
dc.subjectRegional disparitiesen
dc.subjectEconomic growthen
dc.subjectJ11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecastsen
dc.subjectJ21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structureen
dc.subjectO40 - Generalen
dc.subjectR23 - Regional Migration • Regional Labor Markets • Population • Neighborhood Characteristicsen
dc.titleStructural Labour Market Crisis in Bulgaria: Demographic Decline, Labour Shortages and Macroeconomic Implications (2013 – 2025)en
dc.typePeer-reviewed Articleen

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